Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
84.40%
1 Week
81.14%
1 Month
72.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 39% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.71 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7393 | 4.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2110 | 19.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7294 | 78.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0963 | -6.05*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7075 | 10.47*** |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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