Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
72.64%
1 Week
74.40%
1 Month
75.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 210% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0719 | 7.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8028 | 25.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0487 | -4.30*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 4.6512 | 0.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7793 | 0.56 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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