Capitalonline Data Service Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
73.73%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
74.14%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
75.47%
increased by 2.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 1, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1788 | 4.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 3.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8805 | 26.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0349 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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