FDM Group (Holdings) plc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.23%
increased by 1.29%
1 Week
46.84%
increased by 3.90%
1 Month
50.52%
increased by 7.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7360 | 4.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1231 | 3.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7043 | 10.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0402 | -0.51 |
| γ2 | 0.0305 | 0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0749 | 1.30 |
| γ4 | -0.1187 | -2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.827
Half-life:
4 days
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