V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
46.18%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Week
47.59%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
49.60%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7211 | 5.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.1250 | 3.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6988 | 10.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0533 | -1.45 |
| γ2 | 0.1031 | 1.97** |
| γ3 | -0.0814 | -3.01*** |
0.824
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7211 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1250 | 3.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6988 | 10.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0533 | -1.45 |
| γ2 | 0.1031 | 1.97** |
| γ3 | -0.0814 | -3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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