V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
39.81%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
43.30%
increased by 3.11%
1 Month
48.01%
increased by 7.82%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7196 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1248 | 3.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6988 | 10.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0543 | -1.46 |
| γ2 | 0.1049 | 1.99** |
| γ3 | -0.0827 | -3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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