V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
60.32%
decreased by 6.12%
1 Week
58.47%
decreased by 7.97%
1 Month
55.56%
decreased by 10.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7339 | 4.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1238 | 3.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7038 | 10.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0396 | -0.51 |
| γ2 | 0.0303 | 0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.0749 | 1.31 |
| γ4 | -0.1197 | -2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.828
Half-life:
4 days
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