V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
59.13%
decreased by 5.48%
1 Week
56.92%
decreased by 7.69%
1 Month
52.88%
decreased by 11.73%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 10.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7470 | 42.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0164 | 1.04 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0025 | 0.12 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0051 | 1.64 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9949 | 164.83*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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