V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
38.40%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
41.42%
increased by 2.57%
1 Month
46.11%
increased by 7.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1073 | 10.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7398 | 41.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0141 | 0.87 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0024 | 0.12 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0049 | 1.60 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9951 | 173.00*** |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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