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FDM Group (Holdings) plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

39.70%

increased by 0.18%

1 Week

42.16%

increased by 2.64%

1 Month

45.98%

increased by 6.46%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FDM Group (Holdings) plc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow91
αARCH0.1082
4.09***
βGARCH0.7382
11.20***
γleverage0.0128
0.24
λ₁tau intercept0.0023
0.10
λ₂forecast adj.0.0047
1.47
λ₃tau persistence0.9953
153.88***

0.853

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1082
4.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7382
11.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0128
0.24
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0023
0.10
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0047
1.47
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9953
153.88***

Persistence:

0.853

Half-life:

4 days