FDM Group (Holdings) plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
40.76%
increased by 1.04%
1 Week
42.85%
increased by 3.13%
1 Month
46.36%
increased by 6.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0998 | 9.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7513 | 43.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0193 | 1.17 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0024 | 0.10 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0049 | 1.60 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9951 | 154.74*** |
Persistence:
0.861
Half-life:
5 days
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