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V-Lab

FDM Group (Holdings) plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

40.76%

increased by 1.04%

1 Week

42.85%

increased by 3.13%

1 Month

46.36%

increased by 6.64%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FDM Group (Holdings) plc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0998
9.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7513
43.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0193
1.17
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0024
0.10
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0049
1.60
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9951
154.74***

Persistence:

0.861

Half-life:

5 days