V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
39.70%
increased by 0.18%
1 Week
42.16%
increased by 2.64%
1 Month
45.98%
increased by 6.46%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.1082 | 4.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7382 | 11.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.0128 | 0.24 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0023 | 0.10 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0047 | 1.47 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9953 | 153.88*** |
0.853
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1082 | 4.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7382 | 11.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0128 | 0.24 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0023 | 0.10 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0047 | 1.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9953 | 153.88*** |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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