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FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

40.18%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

39.49%

decreased by 1.35%

1 Month

37.80%

decreased by 3.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 3.83 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0030
1.69*
αARCH0.0883
2.75***
βGARCH0.9156
16.92***
νDF3.8320
1.20

0.916

Persistence

8d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0030
1.69*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0883
2.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9156
16.92***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8320
1.20

Persistence:

0.916

Half-life:

8 days