V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
40.18%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
39.49%
decreased by 1.35%
1 Month
37.80%
decreased by 3.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 3.83 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0030 | 1.69* |
| αARCH | 0.0883 | 2.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9156 | 16.92*** |
| νDF | 3.8320 | 1.20 |
0.916
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0030 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9156 | 16.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8320 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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