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V-Lab

FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

63.95%

decreased by 6.90%

1 Week

60.80%

decreased by 10.05%

1 Month

52.05%

decreased by 18.80%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0371
6.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0843
11.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9248
72.52***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8371
4.83***

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days