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FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

36.28%

decreased by 1.85%

1 Week

36.03%

decreased by 2.10%

1 Month

35.40%

decreased by 2.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:32 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 4.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.0705
2.09**
αscore0.0834
2.77***
βpersistence0.9215
23.18***
νDF4.6012
0.89

0.921

Persistence

8d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.0705
2.09**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0834
2.77***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9215
23.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6012
0.89

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days