V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
28.67%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Week
29.81%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
32.37%
increased by 1.92%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.9953 | 6.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0877 | 11.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9175 | 69.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8473 | 4.80*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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