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FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

31.86%

increased by 1.02%

1 Week

32.47%

increased by 1.63%

1 Month

33.87%

increased by 3.03%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 3.85 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0069
1.74*
αARCH0.0903
2.73***
βGARCH0.9126
16.87***
νDF3.8530
1.20

0.913

Persistence

8d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0069
1.74*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0903
2.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9126
16.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8530
1.20

Persistence:

0.913

Half-life:

8 days