V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
31.86%
increased by 1.02%
1 Week
32.47%
increased by 1.63%
1 Month
33.87%
increased by 3.03%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 3.85 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0069 | 1.74* |
| αARCH | 0.0903 | 2.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9126 | 16.87*** |
| νDF | 3.8530 | 1.20 |
0.913
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0069 | 1.74* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0903 | 2.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9126 | 16.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8530 | 1.20 |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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