V-Lab
FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
63.95%
decreased by 6.90%
1 Week
60.80%
decreased by 10.05%
1 Month
52.05%
decreased by 18.80%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0371 | 6.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0843 | 11.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9248 | 72.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8371 | 4.83*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
Other FDM Group (Holdings) plc Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities