Skip to main content
V-Lab

FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

28.67%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Week

29.81%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Month

32.37%

increased by 1.92%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.9953
6.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0877
11.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9175
69.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8473
4.80***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days