FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.71%
increased by 2.82%
1 Week
33.92%
increased by 3.03%
1 Month
34.45%
increased by 3.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.9221 | 6.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0792 | 10.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9262 | 71.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8160 | 4.59*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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