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FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

33.71%

increased by 2.82%

1 Week

33.92%

increased by 3.03%

1 Month

34.45%

increased by 3.56%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of FDM Group (Holdings) plc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.9221
6.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0792
10.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9262
71.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8160
4.59***

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days