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V-Lab

Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

66.98%

decreased by 5.13%

1 Week

66.63%

decreased by 5.48%

1 Month

65.70%

decreased by 6.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6605
5.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1236
7.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8107
28.93***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0010
0.01
γ2-0.0811
-0.81
γ30.1661
2.65***
γ4-0.1263
-2.94***

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days