V-Lab
Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
61.61%
1 Week
66.17%
1 Month
66.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 37% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2329 | 25.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3339 | 6.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0627 | -5.32*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.9749 | 0.49 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3245 | 0.45 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5894 | 0.65 |
Persistence:
0.536
Half-life:
1 days
Other Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities