V-Lab
Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
67.68%
decreased by 6.56%
1 Week
67.31%
decreased by 6.93%
1 Month
65.99%
decreased by 8.25%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.7068 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0997 | 25.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9817 | 215.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8070 | 8.88*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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