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V-Lab

Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

67.68%

decreased by 6.56%

1 Week

67.31%

decreased by 6.93%

1 Month

65.99%

decreased by 8.25%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangdong Qunxing Toys Joint-Stock Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.7068
4.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0997
25.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9817
215.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8070
8.88***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days