V-Lab
Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
45.65%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
47.00%
increased by 2.23%
1 Month
49.46%
increased by 4.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9696 | 8.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.1408 | 4.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7327 | 11.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -0.58 |
0.874
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9696 | 8.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1408 | 4.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7327 | 11.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -0.58 |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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