Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
43.83%
decreased by 2.69%
1 Week
45.72%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Month
49.12%
increased by 2.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9683 | 7.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1436 | 4.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7303 | 11.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -0.60 |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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