Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

52.42%

decreased by 3.29%

1 Week

53.46%

decreased by 2.25%

1 Month

55.38%

decreased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bella Casa Fashion & Retail SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 15, 2015 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0301
6.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1433
4.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7302
12.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0048
0.77

Persistence:

0.873

Half-life:

5 days