Bella Casa Fashion & Retail Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
47.64%
decreased by 2.49%
1 Week
50.30%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
54.97%
increased by 4.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0390 | 6.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1447 | 4.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7278 | 11.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0063 | 0.97 |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
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