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Bella Casa Fashion & Retail GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

1,979.53%

increased by 146.43%

1 Week

1,977.56%

increased by 144.46%

1 Month

1,969.69%

increased by 136.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bella Casa Fashion & Retail GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 15, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst21.6441
5.94***
αARCH0.0784
39.91***
βGARCH0.9990
5,257.89***
νDF2.0004

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

21.6441
5.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0784
39.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
5,257.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0004

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days