V-Lab
Bella Casa Fashion & Retail GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
1,979.53%
increased by 146.43%
1 Week
1,977.56%
increased by 144.46%
1 Month
1,969.69%
increased by 136.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 21.6441 | 5.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0784 | 39.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 5,257.89*** |
| νDF | 2.0004 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.6441 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 39.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 5,257.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0004 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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