Bella Casa Fashion & Retail APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.78%
1 Week
46.52%
1 Month
49.69%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 48% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.35 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6454 | 10.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1498 | 20.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7446 | 51.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1440 | -3.55*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3459 | 17.99*** |
Persistence:
0.870
Half-life:
5 days
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