V-Lab
Bella Casa Fashion & Retail GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
45.45%
increased by 1.09%
1 Week
46.47%
increased by 2.11%
1 Month
48.37%
increased by 4.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2403 | 3.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.1574 | 3.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7315 | 12.63*** |
| γleverage | -0.0288 | -0.32 |
0.875
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2403 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1574 | 3.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7315 | 12.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0288 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.875
Half-life:
5 days
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