Bella Casa Fashion & Retail MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
43.51%
decreased by 2.43%
1 Week
46.01%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
48.98%
increased by 3.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1187 | 8.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6841 | 18.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0156 | 0.87 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.0407 | 0.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2831 | 0.23 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.811
Half-life:
3 days
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