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V-Lab

Unicap Modaraba GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

100.84%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

106.19%

increased by 5.29%

1 Month

120.15%

increased by 19.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Unicap Modaraba GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 27, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.4591
11.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0920
9.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8493
111.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0112
0.57

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days