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V-Lab

Unicap Modaraba GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

99.31%

decreased by 1.91%

1 Week

104.77%

increased by 3.55%

1 Month

119.05%

increased by 17.83%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Unicap Modaraba GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 27, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.3816
11.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0911
9.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8505
113.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0119
0.61

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days