V-Lab
Unicap Modaraba GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
94.78%
increased by 2.39%
1 Week
100.79%
increased by 8.40%
1 Month
116.40%
increased by 24.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2012 to Aug 24, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.2914 | 11.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0908 | 9.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8515 | 115.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0124 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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