V-Lab
Unicap Modaraba GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
99.31%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Week
104.77%
increased by 3.55%
1 Month
119.05%
increased by 17.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 27, 2012 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3816 | 11.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0911 | 9.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8505 | 113.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0119 | 0.61 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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