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V-Lab

Unicap Modaraba GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

668.00%

increased by 187.07%

1 Week

702.89%

increased by 221.96%

1 Month

795.35%

increased by 314.42%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Unicap Modaraba GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 27, 2012 to Aug 24, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3,737.6366
2.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2413
40.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9493
51.07***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0096
2,210.74***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days