V-Lab
Jinbei Automotive Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
53.80%
increased by 20.67%
1 Week
49.68%
increased by 16.55%
1 Month
44.62%
increased by 11.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 1992 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.1773 | 7.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6408 | 17.07*** |
| γleverage | -0.0497 | -1.52 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2025 | 2.07** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0388 | 2.49** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9386 | 37.55*** |
0.793
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1773 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6408 | 17.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0497 | -1.52 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2025 | 2.07** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0388 | 2.49** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9386 | 37.55*** |
Persistence:
0.793
Half-life:
3 days
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