V-Lab
Jinbei Automotive Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
43.67%
decreased by 3.32%
1 Week
44.28%
decreased by 2.71%
1 Month
46.21%
decreased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 1992 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 4.26 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 11.0213 | 1.78* |
| αARCH | 0.1031 | 7.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9682 | 52.63*** |
| νDF | 4.2637 | 2.96*** |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.0213 | 1.78* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1031 | 7.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9682 | 52.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2637 | 2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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