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Seshasayee Paper&B GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

30.50%

decreased by 1.86%

1 Week

31.66%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Month

35.51%

increased by 3.15%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Seshasayee Paper&B GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 26, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

12.2034
4.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
33.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9828
270.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8434
15.95***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days