V-Lab
VIEL & Cie SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
24.76%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
27.12%
increased by 2.31%
1 Month
31.16%
increased by 6.35%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5768 | 6.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.1862 | 5.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6696 | 22.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.0404 | 0.63 |
0.876
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5768 | 6.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1862 | 5.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6696 | 22.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0404 | 0.63 |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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