VIEL & Cie SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
26.34%
decreased by 1.63%
1 Week
27.72%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
29.04%
increased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 16% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1908 | 27.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5320 | 43.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0305 | 2.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0463 | 2.85*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0206 | 4.45*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9679 | 125.11*** |
Persistence:
0.738
Half-life:
2 days
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