V-Lab
VIEL & Cie SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
26.90%
increased by 3.07%
1 Week
27.31%
increased by 3.48%
1 Month
27.57%
increased by 3.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 16% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1905 | 27.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5322 | 43.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0307 | 2.87*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0463 | 2.85*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0207 | 4.45*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9677 | 124.48*** |
Persistence:
0.738
Half-life:
2 days
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