V-Lab
VIEL & Cie SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
28.37%
increased by 3.55%
1 Week
28.57%
increased by 3.75%
1 Month
28.96%
increased by 4.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 16% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1906 | 27.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5318 | 43.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0304 | 2.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0463 | 2.84*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0206 | 4.44*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9678 | 124.74*** |
Persistence:
0.738
Half-life:
2 days
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