Conpet SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.65%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
14.60%
increased by 1.04%
1 Month
16.99%
increased by 3.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 24, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1359 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2794 | 4.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5352 | 7.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.2161 | 1.02 |
| γ2 | -0.1570 | -0.44 |
| γ3 | -0.3178 | -0.97 |
| γ4 | 0.7357 | 2.25** |
| γ5 | -0.8621 | -2.99*** |
| γ6 | 0.5975 | 2.20** |
| γ7 | -0.2583 | -1.24 |
Persistence:
0.815
Half-life:
3 days
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