V-Lab
Sofina SA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.65%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
18.80%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
19.36%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0170 | 6.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0326 | 9.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9613 | 235.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2806 | 4.52*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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