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V-Lab

Sofina SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

18.64%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

19.22%

increased by 0.22%

1 Month

19.92%

increased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sofina SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 12, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026
Stationarity Enforced

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 355% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0247
3.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6264
7.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0876
4.41***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4114
0.13
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5560
0.13
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3105
0.06

Persistence:

0.695

Half-life:

2 days