V-Lab
Sofina SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.64%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
19.22%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
19.92%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 355% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0247 | 3.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6264 | 7.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0876 | 4.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4114 | 0.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5560 | 0.13 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3105 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.695
Half-life:
2 days
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