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V-Lab

Sofina SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

19.31%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

19.43%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

19.89%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Sofina SA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 12, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0212
7.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0069
2.01**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9653
269.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0396
5.79***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days