V-Lab
Sofina SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
20.80%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
20.89%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
21.23%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 7.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0065 | 1.93* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9660 | 269.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0393 | 5.82*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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