V-Lab
Sofina SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.78%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
18.91%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
19.41%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0068 | 1.99** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9654 | 268.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0397 | 5.82*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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