V-Lab
Sofina SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.31%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
19.43%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
19.89%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0069 | 2.01** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9653 | 269.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0396 | 5.79*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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