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V-Lab

Sofina SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

20.80%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

20.89%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

21.23%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Sofina SA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 12, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0210
7.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0065
1.93*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9660
269.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0393
5.82***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

89 days