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V-Lab

Sofina SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

23.07%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

23.64%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

24.12%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sofina SA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 12, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3874
5.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0956
2.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5946
4.14***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-2.1705
-2.92***
γ24.0383
3.55***
γ3-4.0611
-4.31***
γ44.2828
4.60***
γ5-3.4269
-3.80***
γ61.0279
0.99
γ71.1293
1.07
γ8-1.0971
-1.30
γ90.2992
0.56

Persistence:

0.690

Half-life:

2 days