V-Lab
Sofina SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.07%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
23.64%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
24.12%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3874 | 5.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0956 | 2.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5946 | 4.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.1705 | -2.92*** |
| γ2 | 4.0383 | 3.55*** |
| γ3 | -4.0611 | -4.31*** |
| γ4 | 4.2828 | 4.60*** |
| γ5 | -3.4269 | -3.80*** |
| γ6 | 1.0279 | 0.99 |
| γ7 | 1.1293 | 1.07 |
| γ8 | -1.0971 | -1.30 |
| γ9 | 0.2992 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.690
Half-life:
2 days
Other Sofina SA Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities