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V-Lab

Sofina SA GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

19.24%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

19.37%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

19.85%

increased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sofina SA GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 12, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0179
6.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0337
9.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9608
242.32***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

125 days