V-Lab
Sofina SA GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.24%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
19.37%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
19.85%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 12, 2018 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 125 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0179 | 6.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0337 | 9.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9608 | 242.32*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
125 days
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