V-Lab
Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
36.42%
decreased by 4.08%
1 Week
48.88%
increased by 8.38%
1 Month
60.36%
increased by 19.86%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.8771 | 6.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3376 | 8.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7723 | 22.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4007 | 5.56*** |
Persistence:
0.772
Half-life:
3 days
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