V-Lab
Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.55%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
34.72%
increased by 2.17%
1 Month
38.10%
increased by 5.55%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 29% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1527 | 10.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6074 | 22.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0450 | 2.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9985 | 212.95*** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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