V-Lab
Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.64%
decreased by 1.35%
1 Week
33.28%
increased by 3.29%
1 Month
36.23%
increased by 6.24%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5711 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2906 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3453 | 2.28** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 2.0183 | 1.72* |
| γ2 | -3.2643 | -1.89* |
| γ3 | 1.9601 | 2.31** |
Persistence:
0.636
Half-life:
2 days
Other Bati EGE Gayrimenkul Yatirim Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities