V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
66.65%
1 Week
71.54%
1 Month
84.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 39% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2798 | 27.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6185 | 57.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0782 | -5.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1043 | 3.99*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0595 | 5.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9353 | 75.42*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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