V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
55.88%
1 Week
64.33%
1 Month
80.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 38% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2789 | 27.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6197 | 58.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0773 | -5.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0990 | 3.99*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0562 | 5.37*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9387 | 82.46*** |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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