V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
63.73%
decreased by 4.60%
1 Week
69.65%
increased by 1.32%
1 Month
79.24%
increased by 10.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.2810 | 6.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6164 | 18.83*** |
| γleverage | -0.0782 | -1.55 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1016 | 1.81* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0578 | 3.57*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9370 | 50.55*** |
0.858
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2810 | 6.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6164 | 18.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0782 | -1.55 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1016 | 1.81* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0578 | 3.57*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9370 | 50.55*** |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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