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V-Lab

Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

66.65%

decreased by 4.79%

1 Week

71.54%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

84.86%

increased by 13.42%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 39% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2798
27.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6185
57.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0782
-5.60***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.1043
3.99***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0595
5.19***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9353
75.42***

Persistence:

0.859

Half-life:

5 days