V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
60.64%
decreased by 5.98%
1 Week
60.53%
decreased by 6.09%
1 Month
60.33%
decreased by 6.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7499 | 6.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2121 | 8.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6690 | 18.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0319 | -0.68 |
| γ2 | 0.0978 | 1.42 |
| γ3 | -0.2186 | -4.23*** |
| γ4 | 0.2299 | 3.71*** |
| γ5 | 0.0051 | 0.08 |
| γ6 | -0.2714 | -4.52*** |
| γ7 | 0.3803 | 7.09*** |
| γ8 | -0.2560 | -4.29*** |
| γ9 | 0.0551 | 0.79 |
| γ10 | 0.0104 | 0.20 |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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