V-Lab
Chinyang Poly Urethane Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
43.95%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
47.77%
increased by 3.37%
1 Month
54.47%
increased by 10.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7511 | 6.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2122 | 8.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6675 | 18.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0317 | -0.68 |
| γ2 | 0.0980 | 1.44 |
| γ3 | -0.2202 | -4.29*** |
| γ4 | 0.2332 | 3.78*** |
| γ5 | 0.0003 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -0.2670 | -4.49*** |
| γ7 | 0.3786 | 7.13*** |
| γ8 | -0.2574 | -4.39*** |
| γ9 | 0.0564 | 0.82 |
| γ10 | 0.0108 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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