Han Kook Capital Co Ltd MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
29.12%
increased by 7.23%
1 Week
30.67%
increased by 8.78%
1 Month
36.06%
increased by 14.17%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:33 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~149 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2003 | 2.54** |
| αARCH | 0.3338 | 9.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6616 | 26.74*** |
0.995
Persistence149d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2003 | 2.54** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3338 | 9.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6616 | 26.74*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
149 days
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