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Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

26.79%

decreased by 1.99%

1 Week

26.75%

decreased by 2.03%

1 Month

26.61%

decreased by 2.17%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 9, 2006 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 5.43 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.9462
1.90*
αscore0.0891
4.98***
βpersistence0.9682
52.49***
νDF5.4321
1.41

0.968

Persistence

21d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.9462
1.90*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0891
4.98***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9682
52.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4321
1.41

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days