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Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

29.67%

decreased by 1.09%

1 Week

29.53%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Month

29.05%

decreased by 1.71%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 9, 2006 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 4.19 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9459
1.41
αARCH0.0848
4.85***
βGARCH0.9682
39.98***
νDF4.1862
1.97**

0.968

Persistence

21d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9459
1.41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0848
4.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9682
39.98***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1862
1.97**

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days