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V-Lab

Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

21.80%

decreased by 1.62%

1 Week

22.16%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Month

23.29%

decreased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 9, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9295
5.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0844
19.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9691
161.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2370
7.64***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days