Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

23.05%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

23.33%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

24.21%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 9, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 4.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9343
1.44
αARCH0.0849
4.87***
βGARCH0.9680
40.33***
νDF4.2075
1.97**

0.968

Persistence

21d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9343
1.44
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0849
4.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9680
40.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2075
1.97**

Persistence:

0.968

Half-life:

21 days