V-Lab
Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
18.88%
increased by 0.78%
1 Week
19.48%
increased by 1.38%
1 Month
21.32%
increased by 3.22%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9296 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0840 | 19.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9689 | 161.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1796 | 7.93*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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