Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
21.80%
decreased by 1.62%
1 Week
22.16%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Month
23.29%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9295 | 5.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0844 | 19.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9691 | 161.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2370 | 7.64*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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