V-Lab
Sonda S.A. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
24.48%
decreased by 1.95%
1 Week
24.65%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Month
25.22%
decreased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9448 | 5.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0839 | 19.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9690 | 160.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1857 | 7.84*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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