V-Lab
Planetel Spa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
40.45%
decreased by 4.01%
1 Week
39.33%
decreased by 5.13%
1 Month
37.55%
decreased by 6.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2731 | 5.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1636 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6657 | 9.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.1373 | 2.17** |
| γ2 | -0.1729 | -2.20** |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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