V-Lab
Planetel Spa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
32.68%
decreased by 2.70%
1 Week
33.70%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Month
35.25%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2785 | 5.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1642 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6721 | 9.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.1385 | 2.12** |
| γ2 | -0.1738 | -2.14** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
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