V-Lab
Planetel Spa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
31.62%
decreased by 2.06%
1 Week
33.35%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
35.35%
increased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2021 to Oct 5, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.1389 | 3.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6366 | 9.42*** |
| γleverage | 0.0266 | 0.48 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.5296 | 1.94* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6595 | 4.31*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.789
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1389 | 3.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6366 | 9.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0266 | 0.48 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.5296 | 1.94* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6595 | 4.31*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.789
Half-life:
3 days
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