UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.62%
1 Week
44.66%
1 Month
44.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 51% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0079 | 12.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0569 | 21.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9528 | 629.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0193 | -6.19*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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