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V-Lab

UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

44.62%

increased by 1.39%

1 Week

44.66%

increased by 1.43%

1 Month

44.84%

increased by 1.61%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 14, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 51% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0079
12.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0569
21.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9528
629.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0193
-6.19***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days