V-Lab
UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
40.86%
1 Week
40.90%
1 Month
41.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 51% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0077 | 12.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0563 | 21.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9533 | 636.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0191 | -6.19*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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