V-Lab
UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
25.15%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
25.48%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
25.96%
decreased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5650 | 5.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1878 | 8.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6334 | 16.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0379 | -0.64 |
| γ2 | 0.1284 | 1.44 |
| γ3 | -0.2470 | -4.25*** |
| γ4 | 0.3089 | 5.58*** |
| γ5 | -0.2175 | -4.10*** |
| γ6 | -0.0012 | -0.03 |
| γ7 | 0.1907 | 3.85*** |
| γ8 | -0.1709 | -3.27*** |
| γ9 | 0.0763 | 1.23 |
| γ10 | -0.0591 | -1.12 |
Persistence:
0.821
Half-life:
4 days
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