UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
45.41%
increased by 7.67%
1 Week
40.61%
increased by 2.87%
1 Month
32.14%
decreased by 5.60%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5636 | 5.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1880 | 8.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6369 | 16.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0395 | -0.65 |
| γ2 | 0.1312 | 1.45 |
| γ3 | -0.2483 | -4.22*** |
| γ4 | 0.3073 | 5.51*** |
| γ5 | -0.2119 | -3.97*** |
| γ6 | -0.0089 | -0.19 |
| γ7 | 0.1956 | 3.90*** |
| γ8 | -0.1700 | -3.21*** |
| γ9 | 0.0714 | 1.14 |
| γ10 | -0.0542 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.825
Half-life:
4 days
Other UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities