V-Lab
UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
32.15%
decreased by 4.63%
1 Week
30.73%
decreased by 6.05%
1 Month
28.52%
decreased by 8.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5543 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1884 | 8.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6319 | 16.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0376 | -0.63 |
| γ2 | 0.1269 | 1.42 |
| γ3 | -0.2440 | -4.21*** |
| γ4 | 0.3058 | 5.54*** |
| γ5 | -0.2158 | -4.08*** |
| γ6 | -0.0015 | -0.03 |
| γ7 | 0.1920 | 3.88*** |
| γ8 | -0.1751 | -3.35*** |
| γ9 | 0.0837 | 1.35 |
| γ10 | -0.0661 | -1.25 |
Persistence:
0.820
Half-life:
3 days
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