V-Lab
Kei Industries Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
43.06%
decreased by 1.80%
1 Week
43.89%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
46.60%
increased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 18% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1821 | 10.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0825 | 23.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9017 | 232.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0561 | 2.82*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4632 | 22.26*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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