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V-Lab

Kei Industries Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

37.62%

decreased by 6.08%

1 Week

35.71%

decreased by 7.99%

1 Month

33.49%

decreased by 10.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Kei Industries Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 5, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8503
3.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1485
5.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6058
8.71***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.1084
0.93
γ2-0.1483
-0.96
γ30.2192
1.95*
γ4-0.4151
-3.16***
γ50.3655
2.95***
γ6-0.1367
-1.31
γ7-0.0478
-0.48
γ80.1669
1.29
γ9-0.3247
-1.20

Persistence:

0.754

Half-life:

2 days