V-Lab
Kei Industries Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
37.62%
decreased by 6.08%
1 Week
35.71%
decreased by 7.99%
1 Month
33.49%
decreased by 10.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8503 | 3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1485 | 5.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6058 | 8.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1084 | 0.93 |
| γ2 | -0.1483 | -0.96 |
| γ3 | 0.2192 | 1.95* |
| γ4 | -0.4151 | -3.16*** |
| γ5 | 0.3655 | 2.95*** |
| γ6 | -0.1367 | -1.31 |
| γ7 | -0.0478 | -0.48 |
| γ8 | 0.1669 | 1.29 |
| γ9 | -0.3247 | -1.20 |
Persistence:
0.754
Half-life:
2 days
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