V-Lab
Kei Industries Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
41.00%
decreased by 2.15%
1 Week
42.78%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
45.49%
increased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1404 | 4.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5701 | 7.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.0404 | 0.95 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1135 | 1.60 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0220 | 2.67*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9658 | 66.02*** |
0.731
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1404 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5701 | 7.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0404 | 0.95 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1135 | 1.60 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0220 | 2.67*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9658 | 66.02*** |
Persistence:
0.731
Half-life:
2 days
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