V-Lab
Kei Industries Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
41.49%
decreased by 3.18%
1 Week
41.72%
decreased by 2.95%
1 Month
42.02%
decreased by 2.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8174 | 3.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1348 | 5.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6643 | 9.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0880 | 0.73 |
| γ2 | -0.1136 | -0.71 |
| γ3 | 0.1947 | 1.65* |
| γ4 | -0.4004 | -2.91*** |
| γ5 | 0.3611 | 2.78*** |
| γ6 | -0.1468 | -1.36 |
| γ7 | -0.0075 | -0.08 |
| γ8 | 0.0629 | 0.73 |
| γ9 | -0.0536 | -0.83 |
Persistence:
0.799
Half-life:
3 days
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