V-Lab
Kei Industries Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
38.07%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
39.32%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
40.79%
increased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8185 | 3.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.1423 | 5.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6367 | 8.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0844 | 0.71 |
| γ2 | -0.1068 | -0.68 |
| γ3 | 0.1867 | 1.67* |
| γ4 | -0.3937 | -2.99*** |
| γ5 | 0.3636 | 2.87*** |
| γ6 | -0.1570 | -1.49 |
| γ7 | 0.0038 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | 0.0531 | 0.64 |
| γ9 | -0.0475 | -0.81 |
0.779
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8185 | 3.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1423 | 5.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6367 | 8.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0844 | 0.71 |
| γ2 | -0.1068 | -0.68 |
| γ3 | 0.1867 | 1.67* |
| γ4 | -0.3937 | -2.99*** |
| γ5 | 0.3636 | 2.87*** |
| γ6 | -0.1570 | -1.49 |
| γ7 | 0.0038 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | 0.0531 | 0.64 |
| γ9 | -0.0475 | -0.81 |
Persistence:
0.779
Half-life:
3 days
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