Kei Industries Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
35.89%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Week
37.34%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
39.74%
increased by 2.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9079 | 5.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1229 | 5.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7348 | 14.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0710 | 3.23*** |
| γ2 | -0.1018 | -3.18*** |
| γ3 | 0.0457 | 2.27** |
| γ4 | -0.0155 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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