V-Lab
Kei Industries Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
61.30%
increased by 24.64%
1 Week
57.05%
increased by 20.39%
1 Month
48.65%
increased by 11.99%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9050 | 5.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1220 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7377 | 14.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0702 | 3.21*** |
| γ2 | -0.1005 | -3.16*** |
| γ3 | 0.0448 | 2.24** |
| γ4 | -0.0148 | -1.12 |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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