Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.34%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
30.65%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
31.71%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5013 | 8.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0716 | 7.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9079 | 66.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0030 | 3.86*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
Other Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities