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V-Lab

Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

30.34%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

30.65%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

31.71%

increased by 0.86%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 8, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5013
8.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0716
7.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9079
66.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0030
3.86***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days