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V-Lab

Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

33.80%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

35.61%

increased by 1.63%

1 Month

37.68%

increased by 3.70%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 8, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 16% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0825
20.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8238
110.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0111
-2.28**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.0947
0.80
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8591
1.03
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0177
0.02

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days