V-Lab
Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.80%
1 Week
27.34%
1 Month
29.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 8, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 59% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0807 | 24.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9271 | 288.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0299 | -8.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.8803 | 0.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1058 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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