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V-Lab

Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

26.80%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

27.34%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

29.32%

increased by 2.15%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jiangsu Guotai International Group Guomao Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 8, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 59% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0807
24.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9271
288.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0299
-8.06***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.8803
0.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1058
0.03

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days