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V-Lab

Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

43.38%

increased by 4.42%

1 Week

44.61%

increased by 5.65%

1 Month

47.68%

increased by 8.72%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 52% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1759
16.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7811
90.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0599
-4.38***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.3263
0.22
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3807
0.22
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1034
0.03

Persistence:

0.927

Half-life:

9 days