Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
49.65%
increased by 6.99%
1 Week
50.08%
increased by 7.42%
1 Month
51.51%
increased by 8.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.4206 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1224 | 25.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9762 | 169.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8048 | 8.60*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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