V-Lab
Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
33.05%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
34.56%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
39.30%
increased by 4.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-lifev = 4.87 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.0982 | 1.10 |
| αARCH | 0.1217 | 6.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9763 | 43.70*** |
| νDF | 4.8711 | 2.13** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.0982 | 1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1217 | 6.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9763 | 43.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8711 | 2.13** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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