V-Lab
Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
30.68%
1 Week
33.38%
1 Month
40.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 1.60 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3735 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.1541 | 5.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8093 | 25.64*** |
| γleverage | -0.1008 | -1.02 |
| δpower | 1.6031 | 4.81*** |
0.946
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3735 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1541 | 5.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8093 | 25.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1008 | -1.02 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6031 | 4.81*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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