V-Lab
Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
29.55%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
32.49%
increased by 2.09%
1 Month
39.53%
increased by 9.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2014 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1802 | 9.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.1665 | 5.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7760 | 23.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0017 | 0.90 |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1802 | 9.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1665 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7760 | 23.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0017 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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