V-Lab
Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
32.92%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
35.22%
increased by 1.20%
1 Month
40.96%
increased by 6.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1887 | 9.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1668 | 5.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7762 | 23.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 0.96 |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1887 | 9.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1668 | 5.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7762 | 23.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0018 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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