Tianjin Pengling Rubber Hose Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.02%
increased by 0.97%
1 Week
45.33%
increased by 2.28%
1 Month
48.84%
increased by 5.79%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2014 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 15% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6595 | 18.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3207 | 31.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6459 | 94.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0411 | -2.11** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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